2001-047 - French occupational outlooks by 2010 : a quantitative approach based on the FLIP-FAP

n° 047 july 2001 by Agnes Topiol

Abstract

The Statistical and Economic Research Department of the French Ministry of Employment and Solidarity has prepared French economy outlooks for the Commissariat General au Plan, in the frame of the Occupational and Qualification Prospective group, so-called “PMQ” (www.plan.gouv.fr). Our main objective is to anticipate labor market trends and more specifically occupational employment through the next ten years. This quantitative approach relies on an econometric estimation of occupational labor demand equations using two major sources : French labor force surveys and French national accounts over the period 1983-2000. Development of these projections begins with a macro economic projection of the French economy over 2000-2010, resulting from the macro-sector HERMES model. Employment projections have been developed for 75 detailed occupations and 22 broad occupational groups. But first and foremost, we have to keep in mind, that making projections is not an exact science and that the main purpose of such an exercise is to shed light on occupational changes on labor market over the next ten years, taking into account, past trends in employment, economic growth and shift in labor force.

The French economy’s real gross domestic product is projected to increase by 2.8% per year and employment by 12% until 2010. In this context, unemployment rate, presently around 9% could decrease drastically to target 7% in 2005 and 5.5% in 2010. Whereas, global economic growth would not affect industries and occupations in the same degrees. Good performances in market services will boost overall growth ; manufacturing industry would progress at a more slowing pace and agriculture and construction would decrease. Public employment growth would also be more moderated than previously and its relative share in global employment could be reduced. Since the situation on the labor market could change sensibly in the future years, with a lower rate of unemployment and labor force stagnation, tensions could appear on prices. Employment increase will mainly concern services related-fields. Except occupational activities in the public sector, employment growth in the market services fields could target nearly +20% by 2010. Manufacturing employment performances would be inferior but improving compared to the previous decade (+5.5% until 2010 against -7% from 1990 to 2000). Labor demand is projected to increase strongly in the next years for managers, engineers (+25%) and technicians (+15%), particularly in computer science-related activities, R&D, professional training and public relation occupations. But, labor demand for less qualified positions would also be very dynamic, contrasting with previous decades, particularly for domestic services occupations (child care workers, personal and home care aides…), waiters and cashiers. In addition, as a result of the continuing automation, the fabrication-related-jobs are declining for all skill-level, but employment losses are more than offset by non-production function expansion, such as logistic, transportation, handing,maintenance or reparation.